Every Time You Almost Win, You Lose

And every time you lose, a child gets polio. We all know that tired old saying and it is ever applicable following the Bills' bittersweet loss to Baltimore.

First thing's first: A round of applause for our offense. What lead to our demise was more our defensive and individual players' inexperience than an effect of our offensive unit.

Secondly: A round of "Boos" for protecting the football. In a testament to the importance of experience, rookie CJ Spiller and sophomore Shawn Nelson coughed up two costly fumbles that shifted the momentum of the game at critical points. Fitz's heroic effort was also slightly tarnished by his two interceptions, the latter of which gave Baltimore their first lead of the game as it resulted in a TD the very next play and capped a 17-point burst by Baltimore in a one-minute span between the 1st and 2nd halves.

I have to say this is one heck of a resilient team with a lot of fight. Compete level was at 10 in this game and that showed in our late 4th quarter rally (Fitz was throwing like I've never seen a Bills player throw after his 2nd INT; you could tell he wanted to win). It wasn't a good loss, I don't want to say there is such a thing, but it was a statement loss. I think teams around the league are going to start respecting the Bills a lot more considering they're capable of putting up over 500 yards of offense and 34 points on a an elite defense.

I won't be satisfied until the left side of the column reads a number greater than zero but at the very least I learned that this team has what it takes to be able to earn that. A few people I've talked to have predicted a great run by the Bills to end the season, one of which was actually a Jets fan. I don't necessarily disagree, it's possible and you can see this team starting to get confident and starting to realize they can play. I had thought this team wouldn't be able to find the right pieces until later in the season but I hope I'm wrong. I hope this is the point where things take a turn for the better but after the Bills' follow-up performance to the Patriots game I'm hesitant to get too optimistic. I want to see them play consecutive good games before I catch Bills fever again.

A quick note about Fitz: If you read what I wrote last week about him then you know I like what he's been doing and think he's for real. I thought maybe he'd be a good option in the coming years if he continued to perform well and sure enough he exceeded everyone's expectations with a performance that could have won the game for the Bills. Keep an eye on him, he's getting smarter with the ball and making tougher reads and more accurate passes (usually his biggest weakness). Game ball to him; runners-up are the entire receiving corps.

Still want that W but I know this: You gotta walk before you can run and crawl before you can walk. At this point the Bills have just discovered they have limbs. From now on we should expect better things from the Bills than what we got in the first few weeks of the season and I hope the players are holding themselves to a higher standard after showing they've got the chops.

Look for the Bills to work on the two D's for next week's contest: Defense and Discipline. With improvements in those areas there's no reason the Bills can't be competitive the rest of the year.

Show of hands, who thinks we'll win this week? Mr Wilson put your hand down, I did not ask who crapped their pants.

Okay, for anyone who doesn't know this the Bills are the worst team in football. There's is room for debate but very little room. The only argument I'd give anyone is that we have yet to play a team that is not above .500 and the Panthers have (they played Cincinnati who is 2-3).

Against the Jags we started great. The Bills came out guns-a-blazin' and looked good, even forced a few turnovers but the early burst was nowhere near enough to make up for the defense's ineptitude. It seems like any team with a running back with at least one leg can put up 30 points on the Bills and this week I expect nothing less. With Baltimore in town you have one of the best running backs in the league, Rice, coupled with one of the top defenses in the league not to mention our old friend McGahee *cough*asshole*cough*. Essentially, the Bills will not be able to stop the Ravens' offense or put up many points vs. their defense. I predicted a 34-14 loss yesterday and given what I've seen of both teams this year, that might even be too optimistic. Of course, this team is still a team of question marks and you never know what they might be able to do if they actually start clicking.

At the very least, the offense has looked relatively competent since Fitz was named the starter. Still, one question we all have is that is given the talent in the backfield why (even if they are in a deficit) don't they opt to run more often? I believe Bills running backs are averaging less than 20 carries combined per game and this is supposed to be our offense's strength. It's up to Chan to figure out how to put us in positions where we can pick up some third downs and extend drives in order to switch up our play calling a little bit and not be so predictable. Third and long??? Statistically, you're going to throw it, if not the Ravens can still stuff your attempt to trick them with a draw/delayed handoff so we'll probably throw. Net result = lots of throws and fewer runs; not playing to our strength. Chan, get them running and running well! We'll see how we plan to trick them because we will most likely have to try something different to get the ball moving on the ground because what we're doing has yet to really work against much worse defenses. Could we finally see some unorthodox play calling designed to get Spiller the ball? When he's had it he's been good, I see no reason why he shouldn't be featured prominently in this week's gameplan.

Defensively, it's a bad week to be potentially without the services of our best run defender who is also ironically our best pass rusher, NT/DT Kyle Williams. Give this man a medal for the things he's capable of doing with a supporting cast of 2nd stringers and rookies. We're going to see more 4-man fronts, meaning Kelsay as a DE opposite Carrington or Johnson and most likely Troup and Stroud plugging the middle. It didn't work vs Jacksonville even with Williams in the fold, why would it work against a better line and a better backfield? If we can hold the Ravens to less than 200 yards rushing I'll call that a positive thing. Through the air, the Ravens are good, not great, but Flacco can do some damage especially if the Bills' secondary plays as it has to start the year, that is out of position and late to the ball. Hopefully something clicks for them so at the very least we can maybe force an INT and shake them a little.

Anyways, call this a game for the rookies and young players to get experience. I wouldn't even mind seeing Maybin in the game once it gets out of hand. If we want him to be able to stop the run, what better way is there than to let him try? I don't expect much from the Bills this week so I won't be so upset at the mistakes we'll be forced into making or will make due to our own weaknesses. I'd like to see the defense come up big a few times, at least make a statement that it's possible to stop the run occasionally but I don't want to get my hopes too high. If we lose by 10 or less I'd say that we played really well (We can't match the talent they have); if by some act of God we win I'll probably have a stroke.

Bottom line: Expect a blowout loss, hope for a close game, and wish for a win. Go Bills!

Could Fitz be The Guy?

So I've been bored today and typically when I get bored things get destroyed. This time I took my energies in a different direction and decided to look at Fitz's stats just to compare how he's doing to how other quarterbacks are doing this season. Given, the numbers do not tell the whole story, you could throw for 300 yards every game but habitually throw away the game with a costly interception in the 4th *cough Favre cough* but they can give you a decent feel for a QB or a snapshot of how they typically perform. Looking at Fitz's career, the numbers aren't great they're average, but if you focus on this year maybe he's coming into his own?

No doubt the man is in all aspects a large step up from Trent Edwards, I don't think there's a way you can quantify that... oh wait there is, about 80 yards/game better in terms of passing and about 15 points/game better since Fitz became the starter.

Alright, so he's much better than a street bum made out of glass, sweet.

How about in comparison to other starting quarterbacks around the league?

In terms of yards/game, a pedestrian 198.3yrds (23rd in the league), just behind the starting duo in Philly and just above old man Favre...nothing impressive there other than the comparison to Edwards but we're a running team anyways or so we're told.

1st down percentage: Not much for this stat because without a great run game or with a highly penalized O-line you're bound to have many longer 3rd downs which are harder to convert and if you have a good running game you'll probably be picking up 1st downs on the ground but NFL.com uses this so at 32.9% Fitz is 20th, above the likes of Ryan, McNabb, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Favre, and a few more starters.

Completion percentage? Middle of the pack at 17th with 61.2% - hey it's still within 10% of the leader and above franchise QBs Flacco, McNabb, Palmer, Ryan, Cutler etc.

TD's? Considering he's only started and played in 3 games, with 7TDs or 2 1/3 per game, that's not bad, that ranks as 15th for all QBs over the course of the season but over the course of those 3 games is #1 and not tied for it either (correct me if I'm wrong I did this all by hand on paper). Also he only has 2 INTs which is less than one per game for those of you who are unfamiliar with 2nd grade math.

The biggest surprise is QB rating: Fitz sits at 99.9 or 4th in the NFL. Vick, P. Manning, and Rivers in that order are the only guys ahead of him. That puts him in some pretty good company.

Sure, you can argue that he's faced some pretty easy pass defenses in NE, NYJ and JAX and that's a valid point. You might also argue that we've been playing catch up in every game and need to throw it to try to compete which might inflate his yards per game but with that comes the need to be efficient with your passes and passer rating is about as good as you can get in terms of measuring a QBs efficiency. You can also say that it's only 3 games and you can't accurately judge him based on those 3. No doubt, small sample size, the Jacksonville game could just be an outlier bringing his stats up, but every QB is going to face those opponents once in a while. Henne for example has faced both NE and NYJ and a comparably terrible pass coverage team to JAX, the Bills, and he has a passer rating of 85.3 (17th) and has 7TDs and 5INTs over 2 fewer games than Fitz (other games vs GB and MIN, both victories and Henne threw for 3TD and 1INT in those 2 games).

So what am I saying? I'm saying, maybe, just maybe, IF Fitz can continue to produce to a similar degree with the pieces we have in place right now, he COULD be a viable option down the road and maybe our 1st round pick, despite the always wise council of Ralph, could be better spent elsewhere. QBs are historically hit or miss in the 1st round as we all know, even high in the first round (Ryan Leaf? Matt Leinart? Tim Couch?) so with the franchise as it stands, it might be better to get someone on the defensive side of the ball who can be an immediate impact player as it's obvious that our defense (worst in the league) is our biggest weakness.

Maybe Fitz is on a hot streak and will come back to earth but maybe he's finally hit his stride and has come into his own. It's anyone's guess, but as it stands now it wouldn't surprise me if they don't make a move at QB come April.

Once Again Into The Fray

Okay so the preformance against the Jets was terrible. The Bills were lucky not to give up 50 points. If I were smarter or less of a fan I would have left the game earlier than midway through the last quarter. I had hoped that Brohm would have gotten off the bench with the game well out of hand. But we will all have to wait. Don't get me wrong I admire Fitz and hope he does well. The Bills know what Fitz brings to the field. As I have stated before his arm is not the strongest and he does not have the best touch. Before much longer the coaches have to take a look at Brohm to determine if has a future role with the team. This might happen sooner than the coaches might like as Fitz runs with reckless abandon.

Speaking of runners I wish Lynch the best. No matter how you view him, the better he does now the better the compensation for the Bills. If only his maturity as a person was on par with his talent he would still be with the team. That being said, I for one welcome the increased role for Fred Jackson and to a lesser extent C.J. Spiller. Fred is the best all around back the team has had in years. Hopefully Spiller will take advantage of his increased touches and learn a more patient running style from working with Jackson.

The game against the Jags is important on so many levels. The Bills need a win to retain the fan base. The game is blacked out for the first time in years. A beautiful fall day is in store for Sunday. Fans will find/ have better things to do than go to the Ralph. A win before the bye would give the team confidence going forward. At this point I am uncertain that a win will encourage fans to attend future home games.

Bills fans know that to win you must run the ball and stop the run. The D needs to find a way to get off the field on 3rd downs. The O needs to find a way to convert 3rd downs into 1st downs. So far the team has been way below average in both instances. As usual the team will be without key starters and back ups on defense. On the bright side the Jags have a poor track record on the road. This game represents the Bills best chance to get a win this season. If not now, then when? Just a hunch but the Bills are backed into a corner. Sunday will be an upset.

Released Mode

Look at that beautiful face up there. Can you tell me you're not going to miss seeing that on the field for the Bills? Oh, you can? Nevermind.

I for one am going to miss Marshawn for everything he's done on the field and for the entertainment he brings off the field. During a dismal rebuilding season in Buffalo, I think there are few if any other players as entertaining as Lynch and he doesn't even need to be on the field to keep you laughing. Of course, a good football player does not need to be a clown, but hell, it can be fun if he is.

Yes, my world crumbled and I died a little yesterday but I'll get by and so will the franchise. This move is actually past due in most people's opinions (regrettably mine included) but I lived in staunch denial of the very real possibility of the trade whereas most Bills fans I feel have embraced the inevitable. In the wake of Lynch's trade it's clear we got just about the most we could for him and that it benefits the development of Spiller, and therefore benefits the team.

Let's face it, we're not going to the playoffs and Lynch was unlikely to resign after this season so I guess the move came at an okay time and gives other playmakers the chance to make plays.

I do think this hurts the franchise a little from a publicity standpoint. How bad is a team if two of it's starters at skill positions are released or traded in the first 4 weeks of the season? What does that say to potential free agent acquisitions, college prospects, your own players? Is the front office so inept at evaluating players that they couldn't accurately do so in the months they had to prepare for the season? What do they see in Kelsay that every football fan is missing that is so essential that we need to sign him to a big extension before the potential lockout?

This club has been nothing if not puzzling these last few weeks, but they did inherit quite a puzzle to deal with; the fruit of a decade of seeds not worth sowing. We all understand why they moved the pieces they have in recent weeks, but it's the timing of the moves that perplexes me the most. Maybe Lynch's value was highest now, but there were rumors of a 3rd or 4th rounder coming from the Seahawks during the draft. Maybe those were unfounded but if not, maybe we could have picked up a legitimate pass rusher who actually fits a 3-4 scheme with that potential pick (sorry Kelsay, Maybin, Carrington, Torbor, Johnson, Stroud, and McCargo).

Hopefully this team has a plan, a good one - no, a great one. It will take a great plan and even better execution to make this team a contender next year. We all know this year is a wash, maybe a few wins down the stretch once some of our players are decently adjusted to the system but even 4 wins is asking a lot looking at who we're up against. One thing is certain, this team is getting younger and gearing up for the future. They've already cut loose a lot of the mistakes of years past and I wouldn't be surprised if some veterans with inflated expectations might be traded soon too. I would hate to see it, but Evans and Whitner fall into that boat. They need to step up big and soon because nobody is safe on this team and there are plenty of players willing to take on their roles even if they are inexperienced, and this is a team willing to take a chance on dark horse players.

Final notes: Jets game - if you didn't see it, good. Worst performance by a Bills team I've seen in a long time because we were obliterated in every aspect of the game. The Bills played to their worst potential and the Jets played to their best. How many more players need to be dropped before these guys get in gear? There were some bright spots (ie David Nelson) but very few and I'd rather move on to the Jax game than search for the silver lining.

Marshawn - it was a great time having you on the Bills. You were nothing if not entertaining, controversial and a goofy motha, and for that you will always have a special place on my jack-o-lantern I made last year (though yes, my favorite Bills player since Bruce Smith, obviously not due to talent). I hope you succeed with the 'hawks but not if you play the Bills. I will ovate your entrance into the Ralph the next time you are there and boo your crazy ass off the field if you break a long run. Best of luck and go get 'em, champ (we want the 5th round pick in 2012).

In memoriam

CIRCLE THE WAGONS

For anyone that is a Bills fan this has certainly been an interesting week. The change at qb vs the Pats was necessary . If only Fitz had a better arm we might be on to something. The man has shown the coaches time and again that he can read a defense, ( a skill he will need in spades vs. the Jets),but being coaches there is a bias if you don't look the part. Be prepared to see Brohm get some meaningful playing time in the future. As to the release of Trent it would have been nice if when we shopped him we could have gotten a 7th round pick or at least a lotto ticket. It speaks volumes about his preceived talent that only 2 teams put in a waiver request. Interesting that those are the next 2 opponents. Think they wanted to get a leg up on our offense? The reason behind his release is that he clearly was not in the teams long term plans, and it also prevents the possibility of a divided locker room. The recent injury settlement with Mitchell makes sense. The man has talent but the injury bug must love the taste of his,well you get the picture. He did not like the idea of IR as the injury was only going to cost him 12 games. The settlement allows him to sign with another team and he will soon be 31 years old. So once again a sound move by the GM and coach. So 2 good moves . The extension given Kelsey is another matter. He is a warrior and a stand up guy, has played in well over 95% of the games in his eight years in Buffalo, but the $ seems to high. Let us hope that the contract is incentive driven and back end loaded. Of course he could develope into a pro bowl outside linebacker. Do not hold your breath. At this point I will be happy if he is average. The game against the Jets just became even more difficult due to the injuries to 3 starters. Stroud.McGee and Davis all will be inactive. On the other hand Poz is back, and hopefully he will aide in the ability to stop the run. Of course the 3-4 defense is supposed to do that anyway.(DID THE COACHES FORGET TO GIVE THE BILLS D THAT INFORMATION?) The keys to the Bills chances revolve around several factors. First is to stop the run and establish a running game. Make Sanchez win the game. That being said, we need to find a pass rush,eliminate turnovers,and create some turnovers. Lastly do the Bills have anyone that can cover a tightend? If you believe they do you need to call the coaching staff and tell them whom it is. Has anyone seen our 3rd round draft pick? This may be the week. Also Moats has been seeing practice time at outside linebacker and he was an excellent pass rusher in college. Maybin please pay attention. I will be at the game Sunday. I hope the next post will be to celebrate an upset victory! Go BILLS!